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Susceptibility-adjusted herd immunity threshold model and potential R₀ distribution fitting the observed Covid-19 data in Stockholm

Brennan, PV; Brennan, LP; (2020) Susceptibility-adjusted herd immunity threshold model and potential R₀ distribution fitting the observed Covid-19 data in Stockholm. MedRxiv: Cold Spring Harbor, NY, USA. Green open access

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Abstract

The reproduction number, R0, is commonly used, and sometimes misused, in conjunction with the classic Kermack and McKindrick theory based on the assumption of homogeneity, in order to estimate herd immunity threshold (HIT). This provides a crude first estimate of HIT, with more elaborate modelling required to arrive at a more realistic value. Early estimates of HIT for Covid-19 were based on this simplistic homogeneous approach, yielding high HIT values that have since been revised downwards with more sophisticated network modelling taking account of R0 heterogeneity and with reference to the low HIT found from serological sampling in Stockholm County. The aim of this paper is to describe a simple model in which host susceptibility is directly linked to the heterogeneous R0 distribution, to shed further light on the mechanisms involved and to arrive at a bimodal R0 distribution consistent with the Covid-19 HIT observed in Stockholm County.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Susceptibility-adjusted herd immunity threshold model and potential R₀ distribution fitting the observed Covid-19 data in Stockholm
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596
Language: English
Additional information: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Electronic and Electrical Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10109860
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