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Gaussian Process regressions for seismic fragility assessment of building portfolios

Gentile, R; Galasso, C; (2019) Gaussian Process regressions for seismic fragility assessment of building portfolios. In: Proceedings of the SECED conference 2019: Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world. (pp. pp. 1-10). Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

Seismic fragility assessment of building portfolios usually involves empirical approaches, or numerical, mechanics-based approaches applied to properly-sampled index buildings representative of defined structural typologies. These approaches often neglect the effect of building-to-building variability on portfolio seismic risk estimates. Alternatively, metamodeling techniques can be adopted to surrogate complex mechanical analyses and to properly include class variability. However, commonly-used metamodels rely on various simplifying assumptions. In this study, Gaussian process regression is adopted to address these limitations. The proposed method is demonstrated for seismically-deficient RC school buildings with construction details typical of some developing countries (e.g., in Southeast Asia), for which field data is available. Gaussian processes estimating the fragility statistics of such schools are fitted based on thousands non-linear time-history analyses for over 100 building realisations within the considered structural class. To further increase the tractability of the methodology, alternative metamodels are defined based on numerical non-linear static (pushover) analyses, or analytical “by hand pushover” through the Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis (SLaMA) method. Four validation structures (outside the training set) are defined and analysed through the same approaches. Preliminary results from this study show predicted-to- “observed” errors below 10%, highlighting the accuracy of the fitted metamodels. Moreover, non-linear static approaches (SLaMA or numerical pushover), coupled with the capacity spectrum method, produce sound results, drastically reducing the computational burden in the model calibration.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Gaussian Process regressions for seismic fragility assessment of building portfolios
Event: SECED conference 2019: Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world
Location: Greenwich, London, UK
Dates: 9th-10th September 2019
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/proceedings
Language: English
Additional information: © SECED 2019. SECED allows authors to deposit their AAM under the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial International Licence 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10109244
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