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Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study

Hostettler, IC; Pavlou, M; Ambler, G; Alg, VS; Bonner, S; Walsh, DC; Bulters, D; ... Werring, DJ; + view all (2020) Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study. Neurosurgery , 87 (6) pp. 1269-1276. 10.1093/neuros/nyaa299. Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Long-term outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage, beyond the first few months, is difficult to predict, but has critical relevance to patients, their families, and carers. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) prediction models, which were initially designed to predict short-term (90 d) outcome, as predictors of long-term (2 yr) functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS: We included 1545 patients with angiographically-proven aSAH from the Genetic and Observational Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (GOSH) study recruited at 22 hospitals between 2011 and 2014. We collected data on age, WNFS grade on admission, history of hypertension, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, as well as treatment modality. Functional outcome was measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) with GOS 1 to 3 corresponding to unfavorable and 4 to 5 to favorable functional outcome, according to the SAHIT models. The SAHIT models were assessed for long-term outcome prediction by estimating measures of calibration (calibration slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC]) in relation to poor clinical outcome. RESULTS: Follow-up was standardized to 2 yr using imputation methods. All 3 SAHIT models demonstrated acceptable predictive performance for long-term functional outcome. The estimated AUC was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.77), and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69-0.79) for the core, neuroimaging, and full models, respectively; the calibration slopes were 0.86, 0.84, and 0.89, indicating good calibration. CONCLUSION: The SAHIT prediction models, incorporating simple factors available on hospital admission, show good predictive performance for long-term functional outcome after aSAH.

Type: Article
Title: Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/neuros/nyaa299
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1093/neuros/nyaa299
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, Complications, Functional outcome, Long-term functional outcome, Prognostic models, Validation
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Brain Repair and Rehabilitation
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Department of Neuromuscular Diseases
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10107753
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