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Delineating the spatio-temporal pattern of local authority house prices variation in England between 2009 and 2016

Chi, B; Dennett, A; Evans, T; Morphet, R; (2020) Delineating the spatio-temporal pattern of local authority house prices variation in England between 2009 and 2016. (CASA Working Papers 217). The Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

Most spatio-temporal studies of house price in the UK are carried out at national or regional scale, but house prices differences could be better understood at finer spatial scales. Since England’s house prices, standardised by the size of the property (£/m2), have been shown to be somewhat clustered at local authority level and highly clustered at Middle Layer Super Output (MSOA) level, in the period 2009 to 2016, this research aims to further explore the nature of spatial and temporal variation in house prices at local authority level in England. Growth curve modelling offers a model-based description of the spatio-temporal patterns of local authority house price variation. This research explores local authority effects and three different time effects (quarter, half-year and year) on house price spatio-temporal variation. Results show that these three time effects are essentially identical and are extremely small, in comparison with local authority effects. Since annual effects provide the best fit, local authority annual house price trajectories between 2009 and 2016 are further explored. Local authorities with higher house prices in 2009 are found to have faster growing prices over the eight-year period than local authorities with lower house prices. Moreover, two clear geographic hubs of house price change over the period are observed, one centred on London, the other on Bristo

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Delineating the spatio-temporal pattern of local authority house prices variation in England between 2009 and 2016
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/casa/publications/2...
Language: English
Additional information: Local authority, house price variation, growth curve modelling, England
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10107562
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