Charlton, D;
Kilburn, C;
Edwards, S;
(2020)
Volcanic unrest scenarios and impact assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy.
Journal of Applied Volcanology
, 9
, Article 7. 10.1186/s13617-020-00097-x.
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Abstract
At Campi Flegrei caldera, volcanic unrest hazards during 1982–1984 caused significant building damage and led to the evacuation of over 40,000 residents in the central town of Pozzuoli. Past hazard assessments in this region have focused on eruption hazards rather than on hazards from volcanic unrest. In this study, we developed a hypothetical unrest hazard scenario applied to three locations within Campi Flegrei caldera: Pozzuoli, Agnano and Baia. We also collated GIS exposure datasets and used vulnerability models of building and road damage to carry out an impact assessment for future volcanic unrest at these three test locations. The resulting impact maps provide useful insight into the effects future unrest could have on businesses, buildings and livelihoods within Campi Flegrei. The impact maps show that, depending on the location of unrest, evacuations associated with future unrest may involve displacement of large numbers of residents, and significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. The Agnano scenario is associated with the greatest impact and involves the potential evacuation of 136,000 people and damage to about 2400 buildings, with up to 200 km of roads and 17 km of high-voltage electricity network also exposed. Agnano also lies between Naples and the rest of Campi Flegrei, so that damage to infrastructure may trigger a cascade of obstacles to managing evacuations and repairs during an emergency. The results highlight how a simple impact assessment can be used to explore the possible effects of future unrest hazard, and the importance of considering scenarios in which renewed ground uplift is not necessarily focused beneath Pozzuoli.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Volcanic unrest scenarios and impact assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13617-020-00097-x |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-020-00097-x |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Scenario, Campi Flegrei, Impact assessment, Volcanic unrest, GIS |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10106633 |
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