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The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest

Caroca Soto, P; Cartes, C; Davies, TP; Olivari, J; Rica, S; Vogt-Geisse, K; (2020) The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest. Chaos , 30 (7) , Article 073129. 10.1063/5.0006307. Green open access

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Abstract

We analyze the 2019 Chilean social unrest episode, consisting of a sequence of events, through the lens of an epidemic-like model that considers global contagious dynamics. We adjust the parameters to the Chilean social unrest aggregated public data available from the Undersecretary of Human Rights and observe that the number of violent events follows a well-defined pattern already observed in various public disorder episodes in other countries since the 1960s. Although the epidemic-like models display a single event that reaches a peak followed by an exponential decay, we add standard perturbation schemes that may produce a rich temporal behavior as observed in the 2019 Chilean social turmoil. Although we only have access to aggregated data, we are still able to fit it to our model quite well, providing interesting insights on social unrest dynamics.

Type: Article
Title: The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1063/5.0006307
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0006307
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10105899
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