Milushev, Nikola; (2002) Trade relations and the level of integration between Bulgaria and the European Union. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D.), University College London.

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Abstract

The dissertation analyses the level and direction of trade integration between Bulgaria and the European Union for the period between the end of central planning and 1996. For this purpose, the size and content of the trade flows between the two sides are examined in detail. Chapter 1 makes an overview of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature and presents in detail the Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin model, used in the dissertation. It also lists the data sources for the study. Chapter 2 gives a wider historical and geographical background to the trade integration between Bulgaria and the EU. Presentation is made of the foreign trade patterns of the country in the interwar period, during central planing and in the first years of transition. The chapter also makes an econometric analysis with the help of the gravity model in order to find out to what extent in the first half of the 1990s the Bulgarian direction of trade with different countries and regions corresponded to the potential for trade integration with them. Chapter 3 uses several indicators of export performance in order to analyse the nature of the changes in Bulgarian exports to the EU in the period 1989-1996. These include changes in export volumes, export composition and unit values. The development of Bulgarian comparative advantage towards the EU is estimated with the help of the Export Specialisation Index (ESI). Chapter 4 presents a detailed analysis of Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) between Bulgaria and the EU. Measurements of horizontal and vertical IIT are conducted at a very high level of disaggregation, and an econometric analysis is made of their determinants. Chapter 5 presents an analysis of Marginal Intra- Industry Trade (MIIT) between Bulgaria and the EU. The study supports the initial thesis that Bulgaria's trade integration with the European Union was marked by stagnation and that the increase in trade after 1989 has been mainly a result of filling the artificial gap created by the previous regime. It has not been accompanied by qualitative improvements in the export structure, which would be indicative of enhanced integration process.

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