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Dealing with Uncertainty in Decision-Making for Drinking Water Supply Systems Exposed to Extreme Events

Pagano, A; Pluchinotta, I; Giordano, R; Petrangeli, AB; Fratino, U; Vurro, M; (2018) Dealing with Uncertainty in Decision-Making for Drinking Water Supply Systems Exposed to Extreme Events. Water Resources Management , 32 (6) pp. 2131-2145. 10.1007/s11269-018-1922-8. Green open access

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Abstract

The availability and the quality of drinking water are key requirements for the well-being and the safety of a community, both in ordinary conditions and in case of disasters. Providing safe drinking water in emergency contributes to limit the intensity and the duration of crises, and is thus one of the main concerns for decision-makers, who operate under significant uncertainty. The present work proposes a Decision Support System for the emergency management of drinking water supply systems, integrating: i) a vulnerability assessment model based on Bayesian Belief Networks with the related uncertainty assessment model; ii) a model for impact, and related uncertainty assessment, based on Bayesian Belief Networks. The results of these models are jointly analyzed, providing decision-makers with a ranking of the priority of intervention. A GIS interface (G-Net) is developed to manage both input spatial information and results. The methodology is implemented in L’Aquila case study, discussing the potentialities associated to the use of the tool dealing with information and data uncertainty.

Type: Article
Title: Dealing with Uncertainty in Decision-Making for Drinking Water Supply Systems Exposed to Extreme Events
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1922-8
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1922-8
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Emergency management, Drinking water supply systems, Bayesian belief networks, Uncertainty analysis, Decision support system
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10103553
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