Meng, L;
Yinggang, Z;
Zhang, R;
Ye, Z;
Xia, S;
Cerulli, G;
Casady, C;
(2020)
The Effect of Control Measures on COVID-19 Transmission and Work Resumption: International Evidence.
Research Gate
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Abstract
Many countries have taken non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and push the recovery of national economies. This paper investigates the effect of these control measures by comparing five selected countries, China, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. There is evidence that the degree of early intervention and efficacy of control measures are essential to contain the pandemic. China stands out because its early and strictly enforced interventions are effective to contain the virus spread. Furthermore, we quantify the causal effect of different control measures on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption in China. Surprisingly, digital contact tracing and delegating clear responsibility to the local community appear to be the two most effective policy measures for disease containment and work resumption. Public information campaigns and social distancing also help to flatten the peak significantly. Moreover, material logistics that prevent medical supply shortages provide an additional conditioning factor for disease containment and work resumption. Fiscal policy, however, is less effective at the early to middle stage of the pandemic.
| Type: | Working / discussion paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | The Effect of Control Measures on COVID-19 Transmission and Work Resumption: International Evidence |
| Event: | International Web Workshop on Computational Economics and Econometrics |
| Location: | Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - National Research Council of Italy |
| Dates: | 02 July 2020 - 02 July 2020 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.13140/RG.2.2.16764.16005 |
| Publisher version: | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341940718... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author's pre-print. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Work resumption, Transmission, Control measure, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Efficacy, International comparison, Social and economic impact, Lasso based forecasting, Textual analysis, Econometrics, economic impact, epidemic modelling |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10100401 |
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