Lee, Po Ling Hilda; (1999) Evaluating the employment impact of the proposed Heathrow Airport Terminal Five. Masters thesis (M.Phil), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Heathrow Airport is the fifth largest airport in the world and a treasurable economic asset for UK. Not only does it generate thousands of jobs, but it also have wide economic influence in the region and nation-wide. However, the operation of the airport exerts considerable environmental problems, such as noise, air pollution and traffic congestion, which are highly localised. Unsurprisingly, the proposed expansion of Heathrow Airport Terminal Five has stirred up vigorous debate in the public, making it the longest public inquiry in British history. One of the prime debate at T5 Inquiry lies in the airport employment impact. Two assessments have been submitted respectively by the proposer, BAA plc, and the key opposer. Local Authorities Heathrow Terminal 5 Group (LAHT5), each presenting a divergent forecast of future airport employment. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate and compare the two Heathrow Employment Assessments. It has found that the divergence of the studies stems from the differences of two parties in, firstly, the views of the "Dependency vs. Total Impact" argument in employment assessment, and secondly, their disparate assumptions of future air traffic and productivity growth at Heathrow. More importantly, the two assessments are found highly sensitive towards changes in these underlying assumptions, which are estimated by BAA and LAHT5 in compliance with their positions for and against T5 development. This thesis also reviews recent trends in aviation market and evaluate their implications in future traffic demand at Heathrow Airport. Factors considered include liberalisation of EU aviation market, emergence of hub-and-spoke network, growing demand of transit traffic, competition for major European hub airport, changes of aircraft size and intermodal competition of High Speed Rail Services. These factors have counteracting impacts on the future airport employment and productivity level.

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