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Probabilistic earthquake and flood loss assessment in the Middle East

Dabbeek, J; Silva, V; Galasso, C; Smith, A; (2020) Probabilistic earthquake and flood loss assessment in the Middle East. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction , 49 , Article 101662. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101662. Green open access

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Abstract

Investing in disaster risk reduction and resilience-increasing strategies requires a comprehensive understanding of multi-hazard risk. In this study, we assess the direct economic impacts of earthquakes, fluvial and pluvial floods on the residential building stock of 12 countries in the Middle-East: Jordan, Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq. The model provides the average annual losses as well as losses corresponding to various return periods available at the national and sub-national level. We estimate risk using a set of stochastic events considering a wide range of uncertainties. Specifically, the hazard component includes a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model considering uncertainty in the seismic sources/ruptures and ground motion models; and a high-resolution probabilistic flood hazard model for both fluvial and pluvial events. The loss model incorporates a high-resolution exposure database suitable for multi-hazard risk assessment. The vulnerability component considers diverse building typologies defined by material, lateral-load resisting system, building height, presence of basements and seismic design level. Findings from this study are essential for raising risk awareness and supporting decision making in disaster risk reduction activities in the considered countries.

Type: Article
Title: Probabilistic earthquake and flood loss assessment in the Middle East
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101662
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101662
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Keywords: Middle East, Seismic riskFlood risk,Multi-hazard risk
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Genetics and Genomic Medicine Dept
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10099150
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