Guido, D;
Leonardi, M;
Mellor-Marsá, B;
Moneta, MV;
Sanchez-Niubo, A;
Tyrovolas, S;
Giné-Vázquez, I;
... Raggi, A; + view all
(2020)
Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis.
The Journal of Headache and Pain
, 21
, Article 52. 10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates. METHODS: We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality. RESULTS: Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50. CONCLUSIONS: Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian age period cohort model, Employment, Headache disorders, Musculoskeletal disorders, Pain, Projection |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10098359 |
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