UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world

Brand, C; Anable, J; Ketsopoulou, I; Watson, J; (2020) Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world. Energy Policy , 139 , Article 111334. 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334. (In press).

[img] Text
BrandEtAl_JoEP_AAM.pdf - Accepted version
Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 25 February 2021.

Download (1MB)

Abstract

The phasing out of conventional fossil fuel road vehicles is one of a number of potentially disruptive transport and energy policies. The implied technical substitution alone may be too slow to contribute meaningfully to meeting ‘net zero’ carbon reduction targets. This paper uses established modelling techniques and prospective scenario analyses in a UK case study to investigate what the impacts might be if we were more ambitious, how much disruption is needed to meet climate goals, the role of lifestyle and social change, and the potential implications for key actors in transport energy systems. Existing policies may neither hit carbon reduction targets nor make the early gains needed for a Paris-compliant trajectory. Deeper and earlier reductions in carbon and air quality emissions can be achieved by more ambitious but largely non-disruptive change of a 2030 phase out that includes (plug-in) hybrids. The earlier phase outs combined with lower demand for mobility and car ownership would make significant contributions to an emissions pathway that is both Paris compliant and meets urban air quality goals. Some disruption for technology providers, business and government can be expected in the more ambitious cases. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and recommendations.

Type: Article
Title: Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Decarbonising transport; Cars; Vans; Disruption; Lifestyle change; Net zero
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10093547
Downloads since deposit
2Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item