UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty

Panfylova, J; Ewen, JG; Armstrong, DP; (2019) Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty. Conservation Science and Practice , 1 (10) , Article e90. 10.1111/csp2.90. Green open access

[thumbnail of PanfylovaEwenArmstrong_2019_CSAP.pdf]
Preview
Text
PanfylovaEwenArmstrong_2019_CSAP.pdf - Published Version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Structured decision‐making (SDM) has become popular in natural resource management but has been underused in reintroduction programs. We illustrate how conservation managers can use SDM to guide management decisions after initial reintroduction, when data are still limited and uncertainty around vital rates estimates is high. In 2013, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), an endangered New Zealand forest bird, was reintroduced to Bushy Park (BP), a managed conservation reserve. High post‐release mortality in females led to the population remaining small after 2 years, raising the question of whether more females should be released. We built a model to evaluate three management alternatives, including no further translocation and translocations of 15 additional females (from the only possible source population) in either 2015 or 2016. The fundamental objectives identified were to maximize the number and persistence of female hihi in BP, minimize the impact on the source population, and minimize costs. Our decision analysis incorporated uncertainties in parameter estimation, model selection, and demographic stochasticity. It produced distributions of final scores for each management alternative based on population projections for both the BP population and source population, and objective weights assigned by stakeholders. Although the distributions of final scores overlapped greatly, the “no translocation” alternative was largely stochastically dominant over other management options, that is, it was clearly the best choice in most projections and the choice was ambiguous in the remaining projections. The decision was also unaffected by variation in stakeholder values. Although the underlying modeling was complex, the output provided a simple visualization of outcomes that allowed the recovery group to make an informed decision (no further translocation) that fully considered the uncertainties.

Type: Article
Title: Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/csp2.90
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.90
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: hihi, Notiomystis cincta, objective weights, population management, population model, population reinforcement, reintroduction, structured decision‐making
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10093219
Downloads since deposit
38Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item