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Uncertainty, confidence and suboptimality in choice

Bobadilla Suárez, Sebastián; (2013) Uncertainty, confidence and suboptimality in choice. Masters thesis (M.Sc), UCL (University College London). Green open access

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Abstract

People are not always certain about the choices they make, not even when it comes to simple choices like choosing between a bag of crisps and a chocolate bar. The fact that choices are not always consistent is probably due to the uncertainty inherent to our interactions with the world around us. Moreover, having a sense of confidence in our choices is directly related to the capacity of accessing this uncertainty metacognitively. A novel behavioral measure related to switching eye gaze between items was found to be a good predictor of uncertainty for subjects performing a two alternative forced choice task. This new measure was shown to be associated with subjective reports of confidence which can differentiate between levels of choice accuracy. Confidence ratings, but not switches in eye gaze, were found to be a reliable predictor of preference reversals. This finding is interpreted as suggesting that metacognition, represented by confidence, plays a key role in monitoring errors in decision making.

Type: Thesis (Masters)
Qualification: M.Sc
Title: Uncertainty, confidence and suboptimality in choice
Event: UCL (University College London)
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Language: English
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10093052
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