UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks-A research hypothesis for the next decade

Keith, DW; Irvine, PJ; (2016) Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks-A research hypothesis for the next decade. Earth's Future , 4 (11) pp. 549-559. 10.1002/2016EF000465. Green open access

[thumbnail of Keith_et_al-2016-Earth's_Future.pdf]
Preview
Text
Keith_et_al-2016-Earth's_Future.pdf - Published version

Download (159kB) | Preview

Abstract

We offer a hypothesis that if solar geoengineering (SG) were deployed to offset half of the increase in global‐mean temperature from the date of deployment using a technology and deployment method chosen to approximate a reduction in the solar constant then, over the 21st century, it would (a) substantially reduce the global aggregate risks of climate change, (b) without making any country worse off, and (c) with the aggregate risks from side‐effects being small in comparison to the reduction in climate risks. We do not set out to demonstrate this hypothesis; rather we propose it with the goal of stimulating a strategic engagement of the SG research community with policy‐relevant questions. We elaborate seven sub‐hypotheses on the effects of our scenario for key risks of climate change that could be assessed in future modeling work. As an example, we provide a defence of one of our sub‐hypotheses, that our scenario of SG would reduce the risk of drought in dry regions, but also identify issues that may undermine this sub‐hypothesis and how future work could resolve this question. SG cannot substitute for emissions mitigation but it may be a useful supplement. It is our hope that scientific and technical research over the next decade focuses more closely on well‐articulated variants of the key policy‐relevant question: could SG be designed and deployed in such a way that it could substantially and equitably reduce climate risks?

Type: Article
Title: Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks-A research hypothesis for the next decade
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000465
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000465
Language: English
Additional information: © 2016 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Keywords: geoengineering, climate change, climate policy, SRM
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10091182
Downloads since deposit
0Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item