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Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe

Agnolucci, P; De Lipsis, V; (2020) Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe. Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-019-02622-3. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Reliable projections of crop production are an essential tool for the design of feasible policy plans to tackle food security and land allocation, and an accurate characterization of the long-run trend in crop yield is the key ingredient in such projections. We provide several contributions adding to our current understanding of the impact of climatic factors on crop yield. First of all, reflecting the complexity of agricultural systems and the time required for any change to diffuse, we show that crop yield in Europe has historically been characterized by a stochastic trend rather than the deterministic specifications normally used in the literature. Secondly, we found that, contrary to previous studies, the trend in crop yield has slowly changed across time rather than being affected by a single abrupt permanent change. Thirdly, we provide strong evidence that climatic factors have played a major role in shaping the long-run trajectory of crop yield over the decades, by influencing both the size and the statistical nature of the trend. In other words, climatic factors are important not only for the year-to-year fluctuations in crop yield but also for its path in the long-run. Finally, we find that, for most countries in this study, the trend in temperature is responsible for a reduction in the long-run growth rate of yield in wheat, whereas a small gain is produced in maize, except for Southern European countries.

Type: Article
Title: Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02622-3
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02622-3
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Kalman filter, State-space models, Climate change
UCL classification: UCL
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URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10089610
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