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Hydrological modelling of climate change impacts on river flows in Siberia's Lena River Basin and implications for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Hudson, CE; Thompson, JR; (2019) Hydrological modelling of climate change impacts on river flows in Siberia's Lena River Basin and implications for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Hydrology Research , 50 (6) pp. 1577-1595. 10.2166/nh.2019.151. Green open access

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Abstract

A hydrological model of Siberia's Lena River Basin is calibrated and validated against observed river discharge at five stations. Implications of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario for river discharge are assessed using projections from 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 General Circulation Models grouped into 12 genealogical-based groups as well as a group ensemble mean. Annual precipitation increases in all scenarios (1.7–47.4%). Increases in annual PET are of a similar range (6.0–45.5%). PET peaks in June compared to July for the baseline. All temperature changes exceed 1.5 °C (range: 2.2 °C–6.2 °C). The largest absolute increases are in winter (maximum +7 °C). Changes in mean annual discharge range from −8.5 to +69.9%. Ten GCM groups and the group ensemble mean project increases. Earlier snowmelt is dominant so the annual flood peaks in May compared with June for the baseline. Increased discharge of the Lena and other Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean has the potential to impact Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Enhanced fluxes for four groups are capable of weakening the AMOC. Changes for other groups may contribute to weakening when combined with other sources of freshwater and warmer temperatures.

Type: Article
Title: Hydrological modelling of climate change impacts on river flows in Siberia's Lena River Basin and implications for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Event: 13th National Hydrology Symposium - Hydrology - Advances in Theory and Practice
Location: Univ Westminster, London, ENGLAND
Dates: 12 September 2018 - 13 September 2018
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.2166/nh.2019.151
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.151
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), climate change, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Lena, RCP4.5
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10089449
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