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Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox’s Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh

Alam, A; Sammonds, P; Ahmed, B; (2019) Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox’s Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh. Science of The Total Environment 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135360. (In press).

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Abstract

Bangladesh has a long history of devastating tropical cyclones. In view of the effects of the storms on the country, risk assessment is essential for devising the mitigation strategies at various levels. By way of bringing the conceptual structure of general risk model in practice, this work aims to examine the spatial patterns of cyclone risk in the Cox’s Bazar district (I) and Rohingya refugee camps (II) located on the southeastern coast of Bangladesh. We use 14 parameters representing the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as the components of risk. The selected parameters were analyzed and integrated though the complementary use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting the cyclone risk situation comprehensively at both the spatial scales. The status of the cyclone risk was identified and quantified as very high (6.84%, 3.43%), high (45.78%, 27.82%), moderate (5.97%, 39.42%), low (40.62%, 28.70%), and very low (0.81%, 0.61%) for the spatial scale I and II respectively. In general, northwestern and southern peripheral areas exhibited higher risk than the central and northeastern parts of the Cox’s Bazar district; and in the refugee settlements, camp number 1E, 1W, 7, and 13 revealed relatively higher levels of the risk. The results of the assessment (I) were correlated with experiential damage from the 1991 cyclone; a reasonable consistency was noticed between the simulated scenario and the observed impacts. We assume that the deliverables of this spatial analysis could be useful to stakeholders while formulating the cyclone risk mitigation policies for the region. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that the applied method would deliver reliable results if tested in other coastal environments.

Type: Article
Title: Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox’s Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135360
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135360
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Cyclone risk, General risk model, AHP and GIS, Cox’s Bazar, Rohingya refugees
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10087237
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