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Trajectories of physical activity from midlife to old age and associations with subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

Aggio, D; Papachristou, E; Papacosta, O; Lennon, LT; Ash, S; Whincup, P; Wannamethee, SG; (2019) Trajectories of physical activity from midlife to old age and associations with subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 10.1136/jech-2019-212706. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION: It is well established that physical activity (PA) protects against mortality and morbidity, but how long-term patterns of PA are associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. METHODS: 3231 men recruited to the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study, reported usual PA levels at baseline in 1978-1980 (aged 40-59 years) and at 12-year, 16-year and 20-year follow ups. Twenty-year trajectories of PA, spanning from 1978/1980 to 2000, were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Men were subsequently followed up until 30 June 2016 for mortality through National Health Service central registers and for non-fatal CVD events through primary and secondary care records. Data analyses were conducted in 2019. RESULTS: Three PA trajectories were identified: low/decreasing (22.7%), light/stable (51.0%) and moderate/increasing (26.3%). Over a median follow-up of 16.4 years, there were 1735 deaths. Compared with the low/decreasing group, membership of the light/stable (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94) and moderate/increasing (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.88) groups was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. Similar associations were observed for CVD mortality, major coronary heart disease and all CVD events. Associations were only partially explained by a range of confounders. Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival benefits were largely driven by most recent/current PA. CONCLUSIONS: A dose-response relationship was observed, with higher levels of PA from midlife to old age associated with additional benefits. However, even fairly modest and sustained PA was protective and may be more achievable for the most inactive.

Type: Article
Title: Trajectories of physical activity from midlife to old age and associations with subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1136/jech-2019-212706
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2019-212706
Language: English
Additional information: © Author(s) (or their employer[s]) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: CHD/coronorary heart, ageing, cardiovascular disease, life course epidemiology, physical activity
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Psychology and Human Development
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Primary Care and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10086113
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