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Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis

Starns, JJ; Cataldo, AM; Rotello, CM; Annis, J; Aschenbrenner, A; Bröder, A; Cox, G; ... Wilson, J; + view all (2019) Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 10.1177/2515245919869583. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis.

Type: Article
Title: Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/2515245919869583
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F2515245919869583
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: memory, modeling, Bayesian methods, bootstrap, metascience, blinded inference, open data
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10083086
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