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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Redding, D; Atkinson, P; Cunningham, AA; Lo Iacono, G; Moses, L; Wood, J; Jones, K; (2019) Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa. Nature Communications , 10 , Article 4531. 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6. Green open access

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Abstract

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a 1.63-fold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

Type: Article
Title: Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. - With correction dated 15 November 2019.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10081689
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