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Carbon leakage in aviation policy

Dray, L; Doyme, K; (2019) Carbon leakage in aviation policy. Climate Policy , 19 (10) pp. 1284-1296. 10.1080/14693062.2019.1668745.

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Abstract

The inherently global, connected nature of aviation means that carbon leakage from aviation policy does not necessarily behave similarly to leakage from other sectors. We model carbon leakage from a range of aviation policy test cases applied to a specific country (the United Kingdom), motivated by a desire to reduce aviation CO2 faster than achievable by currently-planned global mitigation efforts in pursuit of a year-2050 net zero CO2 target. We find that there are two main components to leakage: one related to passenger behaviour, which tends to result in emissions reductions outside the policy area (negative leakage), and one related to airline behaviour, which tends to result in emissions increases outside the policy area (positive leakage). The overall leakage impact of a policy, and whether it is positive or negative, depends on the balance of these two components and the geographic scope used, and varies for different policy types. In our simulations, carbon pricing-type policies were associated with leakage of between +50 and −150% depending on what is assumed about scope and the values of uncertain parameters. Mandatory biofuel use was associated with positive leakage of around 0–40%, and changes in airport landing costs to promote more fuel-efficient aircraft were associated with positive leakage of 50–150%.

Type: Article
Title: Carbon leakage in aviation policy
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1668745
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1668745
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Aviation, carbon leakage, carbon pricing, biofuel
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10081643
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