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Independent Predictors of Cardiac Mortality and Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Multi-Ethnic Asian ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Bulluck, H; Zheng, H; Chan, MY; Foin, N; Foo, DC; Lee, CW; Lim, ST; ... Hausenloy, DJ; + view all (2019) Independent Predictors of Cardiac Mortality and Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Multi-Ethnic Asian ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention. Scientific Reports , 9 , Article 100. 10.1038/s41598-019-46486-0. Green open access

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Abstract

We aimed to identify independent predictors of cardiac mortality and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from a real-world, multi-ethnic Asian registry [the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry] of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention. 11,546 eligible STEMI patients between 2008 and 2015 were identified. In-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality and 1-year HHF rates were 6.4%, 6.8%, 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. From the derivation cohort (70% of patients), age, Killip class and cardiac arrest, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during hospitalization were predictors of in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality. Previous ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a predictor of in-hospital and 30-day cardiac mortality only, whereas diabetes was a predictor of 1-year cardiac mortality only. Age, previous IHD and diabetes, Killip class, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission, symptom-to-balloon-time and LVEF were predictors of 1-year HHF. The c-statistics were 0.921, 0.901, 0.881, 0.869, respectively. Applying these models to the validation cohort (30% of patients) showed good fit and discrimination (c-statistic 0.922, 0.913, 0.903 and 0.855 respectively; misclassification rate 14.0%, 14.7%, 16.2% and 24.0% respectively). These predictors could be incorporated into specific risk scores to stratify reperfused STEMI patients by their risk level for targeted intervention.

Type: Article
Title: Independent Predictors of Cardiac Mortality and Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Multi-Ethnic Asian ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46486-0
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46486-0
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Interventional cardiology, Risk factors
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Pre-clinical and Fundamental Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10080663
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