UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Analysing person-exposure patterns in lone-actor terrorism: Implications for threat assessment and intelligence gathering

Clemmow, C; Bouhana, N; Gill, P; (2020) Analysing person-exposure patterns in lone-actor terrorism: Implications for threat assessment and intelligence gathering. Criminology and Public Policy , 19 (2) pp. 451-482. 10.1111/1745-9133.12466. Green open access

[thumbnail of Bouhana_Clemmow, Bouhana, Gill 2019 - Lone Actor PEPs - Accepted.pdf]
Preview
Text
Bouhana_Clemmow, Bouhana, Gill 2019 - Lone Actor PEPs - Accepted.pdf - Accepted version

Download (526kB) | Preview

Abstract

The lone-actor terrorist population can be extremely heterogenous and difficult to detect. Intelligence is key to countering this threat. This study devises a typology of person-environment interactions which could serve as a framework for intelligence-gathering and risk assessment. We use cluster analysis and a previously-developed Risk Analysis Framework (RAF) to identify relations between three components: propensity, situation and network. The analysis reveals four person-exposure patterns (PEPs): solitary, susceptible, situational and selection. The solitary PEP lacks common indicators of a propensity to pursue terrorist action. What indicators are present may not manifest until late in the offending process. The susceptible PEP suggests a style of interaction whereby cognitive susceptibility, manifesting as mental illness, is a key factor in the emergence of the propensity/motivation to commit a terrorist attack. This configuration typifies cases where radicalisation may occur in a short time span. The situational PEP demonstrates how situational stressors may act as warnings of acceleration towards violent action; the challenge being to capture evidence of these stressors and their effects. Lastly, the selection PEP demonstrates higher frequencies of leakage and antecedent violent behaviours. These offenders may be known to the community or other agencies, suggesting specific opportunities for detection and disruption.

Type: Article
Title: Analysing person-exposure patterns in lone-actor terrorism: Implications for threat assessment and intelligence gathering
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12466
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12466
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: terrorism, lone actor, risk assessment, intelligence-gathering, risk analysis framework
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10078905
Downloads since deposit
18Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item