UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy

Goscé, L; Winter, JR; Taylor, GS; Lewis, JEA; Stagg, HR; (2019) Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy. Scientific Reports , 9 , Article 9290. 10.1038/s41598-019-45381-y. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Goscé_s41598-019-45381-y.pdf - Published version

Download (3MB) | Preview

Abstract

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the most common human viruses and the cause of pathologies such as infectious mononucleosis (IM) and certain cancers. No vaccine against EBV infection currently exists, but such vaccines are in development. Knowledge of how EBV is transmitted at the population level is critical to the development of target product profles (TPPs) for such vaccines and future vaccination strategies. We present the frst mathematical model of EBV transmission, parameterised using data from England, and use it to compare hypothetical prophylactic vaccines with diferent characteristics and the impact of vaccinating diferent age groups. We found that vaccine duration had more impact than vaccine efcacy on modelled EBV and IM prevalence. The age group vaccinated also had an important efect: vaccinating at a younger age led to a greater reduction in seroprevalence but an increase in IM cases associated with delayed infection. Vaccination had impact on cancer incidence only in the long run, because in England most EBV-related cancers arise in later life. Durability of protection should be a key factor to prioritise in EBV vaccine development and included in vaccine TPPs. These fndings are timely and important for vaccine developers and policy-makers alike.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-45381-y
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45381-y
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10077986
Downloads since deposit
12Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item