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Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence

Portier, F; Beaudry, P; (2019) Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence. Economics Letters , 183 , Article 108523. 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008. Green open access

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Abstract

It is commonly accepted that economic expansions do not exhibit duration dependence, that is, the probability of an expansion terminating in the near future is thought to be independent of the length of the expansion. When looking at the probability of entering a recession within a year (or 2 years), we find considerable evidence of economically significant duration dependence. This pattern suggests that certain types of macroeconomic vulnerabilities may be accumulating as the expansion ages causing the arrival of a recession to become more likely

Type: Article
Title: Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Recessions, Business Cycles JEL Code: E32
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10077921
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