Pinsent, A;
Solomon, AW;
Bailey, RL;
Bid, R;
Cama, A;
Dean, D;
Goodhew, B;
... White, MT; + view all
(2018)
The utility of serology for elimination surveillance of trachoma.
Nature Communications
, 9
, Article 5444. 10.1038/s41467-018-07852-0.
Preview |
Text
s41467-018-07852-0.pdf - Published Version Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, we analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. Analyses with sero-catalytic and antibody acquisition models provide insights into transmission history within each population. To accurately estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR) for trachoma in populations with high-seroprevalence in adults, the model accounts for secondary exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis due to urogenital infection. We estimate the population half-life of sero-reversion for anti-Pgp3 antibodies to be 26 (95% credible interval (CrI): 21–34) years. We show SCRs below 0.015 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0–0.049) per year correspond to a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular below 5%, the current threshold for elimination of active trachoma as a public health problem. As global trachoma prevalence declines, we may need cross-sectional serological survey data to inform programmatic decisions.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The utility of serology for elimination surveillance of trachoma |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-018-07852-0 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07852-0 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10077486 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
