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Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies

Migchelsen, SJ; Martin, DL; Southisombath, K; Turyaguma, P; Heggen, A; Rubangakene, PP; Joof, H; ... Roberts, CH; + view all (2017) Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 11 (1) , Article e0005230. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005230. Green open access

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Abstract

Background: Efforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies. // Methodology: Dried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1–9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1–90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared. // Principal Findings: Seroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden’s J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples. // Conclusions: Internally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation algorithm as a means of setting the threshold for ELISA data. This will facilitate standardisation and harmonisation between studies and eliminate the need to establish and maintain a global calibration standard.

Type: Article
Title: Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005230
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005230
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author 2017. This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Keywords: Trachoma, Enzyme-linked immunoassays, Gambia, Serology, Blood, Laos, Uganda, Antibodies
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10077480
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