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Modelling Ranavirus Transmission in Populations of Common Frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom

Duffus, ALJ; Garner, TWJ; Nichols, RA; Standridge, JP; Earl, JE; (2019) Modelling Ranavirus Transmission in Populations of Common Frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom. Viruses , 11 (6) , Article 556. 10.3390/v11060556. Green open access

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Abstract

Ranaviruses began emerging in common frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom in the late 1980s and early 1990s, causing severe disease and declines in the populations of these animals. Herein, we explored the transmission dynamics of the ranavirus(es) present in common frog populations, in the context of a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model, using parameters derived from the literature. We explored the effects of disease-induced population decline on the dynamics of the ranavirus. We then extended the model to consider the infection dynamics in populations exposed to both ulcerative and hemorrhagic forms of the ranaviral disease. The preliminary investigation indicated the important interactions between the forms. When the ulcerative form was present in a population and the hemorrhagic form was later introduced, the hemorrhagic form of the disease needed to be highly contagious, to persist. We highlighted the areas where further research and experimental evidence is needed and hope that these models would act as a guide for further research into the amphibian disease dynamics.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling Ranavirus Transmission in Populations of Common Frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3390/v11060556
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3390/v11060556
Language: English
Additional information: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
Keywords: transmission modelling; susceptible-infected (SI) models; emerging infection; ranavirosis; Iridoviridae; disease dynamics
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10076148
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