UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Logistic regression prediction model identify type 2 diabetes mellitus as a prognostic factor for human papillomavirus-16 associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Sobti, A; Sharif-Askari, FS; Khan, S; Sharif-Askari, NS; Hachim, MY; Williams, L; Zhou, Y; ... Hamoudi, R; + view all (2019) Logistic regression prediction model identify type 2 diabetes mellitus as a prognostic factor for human papillomavirus-16 associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. PLoS One , 14 (5) , Article e0217000. 10.1371/journal.pone.0217000. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Logistic regression Oral Cancer PLOS One.pdf - Published version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Background: HPV-16–positive HNSCC and HPV-16–negative HNSCC have different clinical factors, representing distinct forms of cancers. The study aimed to identify patient-specific factors for HPV-16-positive HNSCC based on baseline clinical data. Method: Factors associated with HPV-16-positive HNSCC were identified using the data from 210 patients diagnosed with HNSCC at University College of London Hospital between January 1, 2003, and April 30, 2015, inclusive. A series of models were developed using logistic regression methods, and the overall model fit was compared using Akaike Information Criterion. Survival analysis was carried with Cox proportional hazards model for survival-time outcomes. The survival time for individual patients was defined as the time from diagnosis of HNSCC to the date of death from any cause. For patients who did not die, they were censored at the end of study on April 30, 2015. Results: Of the 210 patients, 151 (72%) were found to have HPV-16-positive HNSCC. The logistic regression model showed that the prevalence of developing HPV-16-positive HNSCC was 3.79 times higher in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) (odd ratio [OR], 3.79; 95% CI, 1.70–8.44) than in those without T2DM, and 8.84 times higher in patients with history of primary HNSCC (OR, 8.84; 95% CI, 2.30–33.88) than in those without a history of primary HNSCC. HPV-16–positive HNSCC was also observed more in tonsils (OR, 4.02; 95% CL, 1.56–10.36) and less in non-alcohol drinker’s oral cavity (OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.03–0.56). Furthermore, individual patients were followed-up for 1 to 13 years (median of 1 year). Patients with HPV-positive HNSCC had a median survival of 5 years (95% CI, 2.6–7.3 years). Among HPV-16–positive HNSCC cohort, T2DM was a risk for poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 2.57; 95% Cl, 1.09–6.07), and had lower median survival of 3 years (95% CI, 1.8–4.1 years), as compared to 6 years (95% CI, 2.8–9.1 years) in non-T2DM. Conclusions: Patient-specific factors for HPV-positive HNSCC are T2DM, history of primary HNSCC and tonsillar site. T2DM is associated with poorer prognosis. These findings suggest that it might be beneficial if routine HPV-16 screening is carried out in T2DM patients which can provide better therapeutic and management strategies.

Type: Article
Title: Logistic regression prediction model identify type 2 diabetes mellitus as a prognostic factor for human papillomavirus-16 associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217000
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217000
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright: © 2019 Sobti et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, Type 2 diabetes, HPV-16, Tonsils, Human papillomavirus, Alcohol consumption, Cancer detection and diagnosis, Prognosis
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Surgery and Interventional Sci
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Eastman Dental Institute
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Eastman Dental Institute > EDI MaxFac, Diagnostic, Med and Surg Sci
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10075626
Downloads since deposit
30Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item