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A validation study of the European Society of Cardiology guidelines for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Norrish, G; Ding, T; Field, E; McLeod, K; Ilina, M; Stuart, G; Bhole, V; ... Kaski, JP; + view all (2019) A validation study of the European Society of Cardiology guidelines for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. EP Europace 10.1093/europace/euz118. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

AIMS: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common cause of death in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends consideration of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) if two or more clinical risk factors (RFs) are present, but this approach to risk stratification has not been formally validated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Four hundred and eleven paediatric HCM patients were assessed for four clinical RFs in accordance with current ESC recommendations: severe left ventricular hypertrophy, unexplained syncope, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and family history of SCD. The primary endpoint was a composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate ICD therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia), defined as a major arrhythmic cardiac event (MACE). Over a follow-up period of 2890 patient years (median 5.5 years), MACE occurred in 21 patients (7.5%) with 0 RFs, 19 (16.8%) with 1 RFs, and 3 (18.8%) with 2 or more RFs. Corresponding incidence rates were 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7-1.73], 2.07 (95% CI 1.25-3.23), and 2.52 (95% CI 0.53-7.35) per 100 patient years at risk. Patients with two or more RFs did not have a higher incidence of MACE (log-rank test P = 0.34), with a positive and negative predictive value of 19% and 90%, respectively. The C-statistic was 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.72) at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of MACE is higher for patients with increasing numbers of clinical RFs. However, the current ESC guidelines have a low ability to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals.

Type: Article
Title: A validation study of the European Society of Cardiology guidelines for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/europace/euz118
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1093/europace/euz118
Language: English
Additional information: © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, Sudden death, Children, Risk, ESC Guidelines
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Childrens Cardiovascular Disease
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10075488
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