UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Härmälä, S; O'Brien, A; Parisinos, CA; Direk, K; Shallcross, L; Hayward, A; (2019) Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Diagnostic and Prognostic Research , 3 , Article 10. 10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
s41512-019-0056-7.pdf - Published version

Download (709kB) | Preview

Abstract

Background: Driven by alcohol consumption and obesity, the prevalence of non-viral liver disease in the UK is increasing. Due to its silent and slow nature, the progression of liver disease is currently unpredictable and challenging to monitor. The latest National Institute for Health Care Excellence cirrhosis guidelines call for a validated risk tool that would allow general practitioners to identify patients that are at high risk of developing cirrhosis. Methods: Using linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (a database of > 10 million patients in England), we aim to develop and validate a prediction model to estimate 2-, 5- and 10-year risk of cirrhosis. The model will provide individualised cirrhosis risk predictions for adult primary care patients, free from underlying liver disease or viral hepatitis infection, whose liver blood test results come back abnormal. We will externally validate the model in patients from 30 further Clinical Practice Research Datalink general practices in England. Discussion: The prediction model will provide estimates of cirrhosis risk in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results to guide referral to secondary care, to identify patients who are in serious need of preventative health interventions and to help reassure patients at low risk of cirrhosis in the long term.

Type: Article
Title: Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-019-0056-7
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywords: Cirrhosis, Electronic health records, Liver disease, Prediction model, Prevention, Primary care, Prognosis, Public health
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Health Informatics
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Health Informatics > Clinical Epidemiology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10075446
Downloads since deposit
21Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item