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Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

Winning, M; Price, J; Ekins, P; Pye, S; Glynn, J; Watson, J; McGlade, C; (2019) Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action. Climate Policy , 19 (8) pp. 947-958. 10.1080/14693062.2019.1615858. Green open access

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Abstract

Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.

Type: Article
Title: Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1615858
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1615858
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Paris Agreement, delayed action, economic impact, Nationally Determined Contributions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy system modelling
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10075360
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