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Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK

Blumenau, J; Lauderdale, B; Bailey, D; Rivers, D; (2020) Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK. International Journal of Forecasting , 36 (2) pp. 399-413. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012. Green open access

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Abstract

We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods to pre-election polling. Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, and other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally consistent estimates of national votes and the sub-national electoral districts that determine seats or electoral votes in many electoral systems. We report on the performance of the general framework in three applications that were conducted and released publicly in advance of the 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership, the 2016 US Presidential Election, and the 2017 UK General Election.

Type: Article
Title: Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Election forecasting, PollingUK politics, US politics, Multilevel regression and stratification
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10074013
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