Blumenau, J;
Lauderdale, B;
Bailey, D;
Rivers, D;
(2020)
Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK.
International Journal of Forecasting
, 36
(2)
pp. 399-413.
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012.
Preview |
Text
ijf_final_submission.pdf - Accepted Version Download (790kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods to pre-election polling. Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, and other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally consistent estimates of national votes and the sub-national electoral districts that determine seats or electoral votes in many electoral systems. We report on the performance of the general framework in three applications that were conducted and released publicly in advance of the 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership, the 2016 US Presidential Election, and the 2017 UK General Election.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Election forecasting, PollingUK politics, US politics, Multilevel regression and stratification |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10074013 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
