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Quantifying the Underlying Causes of a Discrepancy Between Predicted and Measured Energy Use

Van Dronkelaar, C; Dowson, M; Spataru, C; Burman, E; Mumovic, D; (2019) Quantifying the Underlying Causes of a Discrepancy Between Predicted and Measured Energy Use. Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering , 5 , Article 20. 10.3389/fmech.2019.00020. Green open access

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Abstract

Simulation is commonly utilized as a best practice approach to assess building performance in the building industry. However, the built environment is complex and influenced by a large number of independent and interdependent variables, making it difficult to achieve an accurate representation of real-world building energy in-use. This gives rise to significant discrepancies between simulation results and actual measured energy consumption, termed “the performance gap.” The research presented in this paper quantified the impact of underlying causes of this gap, by developing building simulation models of four existing non-domestic buildings, and then calibrating them toward their measured energy use at a high level of data granularity. It was found that discrepancies were primarily related to night-time use and seasonality in universities is not being captured correctly, in addition to equipment and server power density being underestimated (indirectly impacting heating and cooling loads). Less impactful parameters were among others; material properties, system efficiencies, and air infiltration assumptions.

Type: Article
Title: Quantifying the Underlying Causes of a Discrepancy Between Predicted and Measured Energy Use
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3389/fmech.2019.00020
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2019.00020
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2019 van Dronkelaar, Dowson, Spataru, Burman and Mumovic. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Keywords: the performance gap, energy model calibration, case research, post-occupancy evaluation, sensitivity analysis
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10073567
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