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AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model

Dray, L; Krammer, P; Doyme, K; Wang, B; Al Zayat, K; O'Sullivan, A; Schafer, A; (2019) AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model. Transport Policy , 79 pp. 93-102. 10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.013. Green open access

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Abstract

Policies aimed at influencing air transportation must operate in a complex, interacting global system of passengers, airlines, airports and other stakeholders. Tools which are capable of assessing policy outcomes in this situation are vital. Given the high uncertainty about future demand, costs and technology characteristics on policy-relevant timescales, such tools also need to allow the evaluation of outcomes from a wide range of plausible futures. This paper presents the validation study and initial baseline results from a comprehensive, open source update of the global AIM aviation systems model. We show that running the model from 2005 to 2015 using 2005 base year data reproduces well the observed demand levels and patterns of growth. Running from a 2015 base year, we project global demand in 2050 of between 13,800 billion and 46,000 billion revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), respectively 2.2 and 7.4 times year 2015 values, depending primarily on the future scenario for population, income and oil price assumed. Absent any radical change in aircraft technology, this would lead to global direct CO2 emissions from aviation of between 876 and 2,500 Mt, or 1.5 to 4.4 times the year-2015 level. This wide level of baseline variation may present a challenge for long-term aviation policy and its adaptability to different futures.

Type: Article
Title: AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.013
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.013
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Aviation emissions, Aviation technology, Systems modelling, Policy assessment, Emissions mitigation
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10072550
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