Frith, Michael James; (2019) A discrete choice and configurational analysis of burglary offence location choices. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the applications of configurational methods from the fields of graph theory and space syntax and discrete choice methods from economics to the analysis of crime. In the work that follows, this thesis will argue that, based on current environmental criminology theory, the movement of offenders and ordinary citizens play a vital but under-researched role in the distributions of crime. For offenders, it shapes their awareness and familiarity of the opportunities for crime. For ordinary citizens, it determines the supply of potential bystanders and the quality of ambient guardianship. This thesis will contend that the current methods for empirically describing or estimating both types of movement and the approaches typically used for analysing (their role in) crime patterns are not without significant shortcomings. As such, a series of novel graph theory network measures and a sample of discrete choice methods (the conditional logit, mixed logit and latent class logit models) are explored in relation to these issues. These methods are then jointly employed and empirically tested and compared in a set of original analyses of the burglary location choices in Buckinghamshire (UK).

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