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Seismic risk assessment of interdependent electric power and water supply systems in Christchurch, New Zealand

Kongar, I; Giovinazzi, S; Rossetto, T; (2017) Seismic risk assessment of interdependent electric power and water supply systems in Christchurch, New Zealand. In: Proceedings of The 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. The Chilean Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, ACHISINA: Santiago, Chile. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

This paper applies a generalized framework for modelling interdependent infrastructure system performance to a case study of the electric power and water supply systems in Christchurch, New Zealand. Based on geospatial exposure data provided by infrastructure operators, the case study identifies the key assets in each system and selects appropriate fragility functions. These are applied along with existing hazard prediction methods to first measure the performance of each system independently and then interdependencies are accounted for by two methods: supply area and proximity. A new interdependency response metric is proposed to measure the magnitude of the interdependency effect of electric power on water supply with minimal computation. For a 10,000-year stochastic earthquake catalogue the electric power network exhibits high resilience with system performance issues arising in less than 3% of events. Exceedance probability curves show that the water supply system is less resilient, due to the effect of ground shaking and liquefaction on pipelines, and that for this case study, the method for modelling interdependency makes little difference to the results. The interdependency metric calculated for each event is low in most cases. However, regression analysis shows a strong linear trend between the interdependency metric and the loss metric for the electric power network and this observation may be exploited in future to develop a simple method for predicting the interdependency effect between any two systems without full simulation.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Seismic risk assessment of interdependent electric power and water supply systems in Christchurch, New Zealand
Event: 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Location: Santiago, Chile
Dates: 09 January 2017 - 13 January 2017
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee16/
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Lifelines; Interdependencies; Seismic risk assessment; Critical infrastructure
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10069009
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