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Modelling the spatial decision making of terrorists: The discrete choice approach

Marchment, Z; Gill, P; (2019) Modelling the spatial decision making of terrorists: The discrete choice approach. Applied Geography , 104 pp. 21-31. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.01.009. Green open access

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Abstract

This is the first study to apply a discrete choice model to understand terrorist spatial decision making. The findings support the proposition that terrorists make decisions that are guided by rationality and act in a similar way to urban criminals. A conditional logistic regression ascertained which characteristics increased the likelihood that an area would be selected as a target, using a dataset of attacks carried out by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in Belfast over a twenty-year period. An increase in distance from the terrorist's home to the attack site decreased the likelihood that an area would be chosen and an area was more likely to be chosen if it contained a major road, police station or military base.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling the spatial decision making of terrorists: The discrete choice approach
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.01.009
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.01.009
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10068615
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