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The dispersion of crime concentration during a period of crime increase

Chainey, S; Monteiro, J; (2019) The dispersion of crime concentration during a period of crime increase. Security Journal , 32 pp. 324-341. 10.1057/s41284-019-00165-x. Green open access

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Abstract

Extensive empirical evidence shows that crime concentrates in place, with these findings being important for helping to target police resources. Little is known, however, about whether these crime concentration areas are where crime increases the most during a period of crime increase. Using data from the seven largest cities in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, we show that during a period of crime increase the locations most responsible for the increases were the micro-places where crime previously concentrated. We argue that the increases in crime in areas of crime concentration were mainly due to these places offering stable favourable conditions for crime. The study introduces a simple index – the Crime Concentration Dispersion Index - that helps police agencies determine where to target resources during a period of crime increase and offers results that provide an important Latin American urban perspective to the literature on crime concentration.

Type: Article
Title: The dispersion of crime concentration during a period of crime increase
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1057/s41284-019-00165-x
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-019-00165-x
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Crime concentration, Hot spot policing, Crime concentration dispersion index, Robbery, Latin America
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10067258
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