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Analysis of energy consumption in Hunan Province (China) using a LMDI method based LEAP model

Wang, P; Wang, C; Hu, Y; Liu, Z; (2017) Analysis of energy consumption in Hunan Province (China) using a LMDI method based LEAP model. In: Yan, J and Wu, J and Li, H, (eds.) Energy Procedia. (pp. pp. 3160-3169). Elsevier Green open access

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Abstract

In order to analyze the factors that affect energy consumption in Hunan Province comprehensively, firstly, this paper used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and divided the total energy consumption growth of three industries from 2006 to 2015 in Hunan Province into scale effect, structure effect and efficiency effect. Secondly, the long-term energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system was used, and the LEAP-Hunan model with benchmark, scale effect, structure effect, efficiency effect and comprehensive adjustment scenarios was set up to analyze the impacts of the three kinds of effects on the total energy consumption profoundly. LMDI qualitative decomposition results show that the scale effect promotes the rapid growth of energy consumption, and efficiency effect can reduce energy consumption in Hunan Province, while inhibition of the structure effect is not prominent on the growth of energy consumption. The quantitative results of LEAP model are highly consistent with it, whose influence on the structure effect is reasonably extrapolated. This phenomenon shows that the structure effect and efficiency effect will jointly bear the inhibitory effect on the growth of total energy consumption in the future. In addition, the LEAP model has predictions about energy consumption from 2016 to 2040 in Hunan Province.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Analysis of energy consumption in Hunan Province (China) using a LMDI method based LEAP model
Event: 9th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE), 21-24 August 2017, Cardiff, Wales
Location: Cardiff, ENGLAND
Dates: 21 August 2017 - 24 August 2017
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.384
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.384
Language: English
Additional information: © 2017 The Authors. This article is Open Access under a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Keywords: energy consumption, LMDI decomposition, LEAP model, qualitative, quantitative analysis
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10066578
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