UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Large Hydropower, Decarbonisation and Climate Change Uncertainty: Modelling Power Sector Pathways for Ecuador

Carvajal, PE; Li, FGN; Soria, R; Cronin, J; Anandarajah, G; Mulugetta, Y; (2019) Large Hydropower, Decarbonisation and Climate Change Uncertainty: Modelling Power Sector Pathways for Ecuador. Energy Strategy Reviews , 23 pp. 86-89. 10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.008. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Anandarajah_Large Hydropower, Decarbonisation and Climate Change_VoR.pdf - Published version

Download (894kB) | Preview

Abstract

Hydropower plays a critical role in global, South American and Ecuadorian energy policy and for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term climatic changes may affect the role of hydropower in meeting energy and climate policy objectives. The effects of climate change on runoff availability for hydropower generation are largely uncertain. This paper uses climate change scenarios derived from a large ensemble of Global Circulation Models as input for an energy system optimisation model (TIMES-EC) to examine least-cost options for the hydropower-dominated Ecuadorian power system in the period to 2050. This is done in the context of three policy cases in order to assess trade-offs between power system configuration, emissions and costs. The results show that in the long-term hydropower will remain as one of the most cost-effective and low emission technologies in the Ecuadorian power sector. However, constraints on deployment and uncertainty around climate change impacts could hinder its ability to contribute to the fulfilment of NDC targets, as well as create uncertainty around long-term power system costs. Strategies to hedge against these risks will likely require that hydropower expansion be complemented by alternative sources, namely incremental shares of thermoelectric generation with natural gas, biomass and geothermal energy.

Type: Article
Title: Large Hydropower, Decarbonisation and Climate Change Uncertainty: Modelling Power Sector Pathways for Ecuador
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.008
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.008
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
Keywords: Hydropower, Energy modelling, NDC, Climate change uncertainty, Ecuador
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > STEaPP
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10065144
Downloads since deposit
96Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item