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Forecasting Model of Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin-Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit Systems

Cheng, Y; Ye, X; Wang, Z; Zhou, L; (2018) Forecasting Model of Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin-Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit Systems. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science) , 46 (3) pp. 346-353. 10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.03.010. Green open access

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Abstract

Urban mass transit is playing a significant role in supporting and promoting urban development. An important indicator for the planning and design of urban rail transit may be succinctly summarized by passenger flow models within a peak hour; one important feature of the model is the maximum single-direction flow. To determine this feature, it is necessary to forecast passengers' departure time and route choice during a peak period. As the basis of this process, the peak-period station-to-station origin-destination (OD) matrix reflects passengers' travel needs. This paper tests the traditional gravity models to find the pattern that forecasts the peak-period station-to-station OD matrix in urban rail transit. A real-world case study of Chongqing, China, is used as a model performance measure. To alleviate its over-estimation when the effect of the deterrence function between two stations is too small, the gravity-model-based peak period coefficient (PPC) model is introduced. By comparing the PPC and gravity models using the same dataset, the results indicate that the PPC model is superior to the gravity model. The standard deviation of the PPC model is 12.90 passengers, which is 56.02% lower than that of the gravity model, which is 29.33 passengers.

Type: Article
Title: Forecasting Model of Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin-Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit Systems
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.03.010
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.0...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: urban rail transit, station-to-station ridership, peak period coefficient, gravity model, deterrence function
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10064499
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