Eddama, M;
Fragkos, KC;
Renshaw, S;
Aldridge, M;
Bough, G;
Bonthala, L;
Wang, A;
(2018)
Logistic regression model to predict acute uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis.
Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England
10.1308/rcsann.2018.0152.
(In press).
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Abstract
INTRODUCTION: While patients with acute uncomplicated appendicitis may be treated conservatively, those who suffer from complicated appendicitis require surgery. We describe a logistic regression equation to calculate the likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute appendicitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 895 patients who underwent appendicectomy were analysed retrospectively. Depending on the final histology, patients were divided into three groups; normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Normal appendix was considered the reference category, while acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis were the nominal categories. Multivariate and univariate regression models were undertaken to detect independent variables with significant odds ratio that can predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Subsequently, a logistic regression equation was generated to produce the likelihood acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. RESULTS: Pathological diagnosis of normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis was identified in 188 (21%), 525 (59%) and 182 patients (20%), respectively. The odds ratio from a univariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis for age, female gender, log2 white cell count, log2 C-reactive protein and log2 bilirubin were 1.02 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.01, 1.04), 2.37 (95% CI 1.51, 3.70), 9.74 (95% CI 5.41, 17.5), 1.57 (95% CI 1.40, 1.74), 2.08 (95% CI 1.56, 2.76), respectively. For the same variable, similar odds ratios were demonstrated in a multivariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis and univariate and multivariate analysis to predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis can be calculated by using the reported predictive equations integrated into a web application at www.appendistat.com. This will enable clinicians to determine the probability of appendicitis and the need for urgent surgery in case of complicated appendicitis. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work would have not been completed without the help of: Clarissa Y. M. Carvallho, Consultant Anaesthetist at Guy's and St Thomas's Hospital; Bried O'Brien, the Head of Urgent Care Transformation at University College London Hospital; and Guang's Wu, Web Application Developer. Their contribution to building the web application allowed this work to materialise into clinical use to benefit patients.
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