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Bayesian Inference of the Rates of Surface Reactions in Icy Mantles

Holdship, J; Jeffrey, N; Makrymallis, A; Viti, S; Yates, J; (2018) Bayesian Inference of the Rates of Surface Reactions in Icy Mantles. Astrophysical Journal , 866 (2) 10.3847/1538-4357/aae1fa. Green open access

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Abstract

Grain surface chemistry and its treatment in gas-grain chemical models is an area of large uncertainty. While laboratory experiments are making progress, there is still much that is unknown about grain surface chemistry. Further, the results and parameters produced by experiments are often not easily translated to the rate equation approach most commonly used in astrochemical modeling. It is possible that statistical methods can reduce the uncertainty in grain surface chemical networks. In this work, a simple model of grain surface chemistry in a molecular cloud is developed and a Bayesian inference of the reactions rates is performed through Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Using observational data of the solid state abundances of major chemical species in molecular clouds, the posterior distributions for the rates of seven reactions producing CO, CO2, CH3OH, and H2O are calculated in a form that is suitable for rate equation models. This represents a vital first step in the development of a method to infer reaction rates from observations of chemical abundances in astrophysical environments.

Type: Article
Title: Bayesian Inference of the Rates of Surface Reactions in Icy Mantles
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/aae1fa
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aae1fa
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the version of the record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: astrochemistry; dust, extinction; ISM: molecules; methods: numerical; methods: statistical
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Physics and Astronomy
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10059829
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