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System Dynamic Modelling of Industrial Growth and Landscape Ecology in China

Xu, J; Kang, J; Shao, L; Zhao, T; (2015) System Dynamic Modelling of Industrial Growth and Landscape Ecology in China. Journal of Environmental Management , 161 pp. 92-105. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.026. Green open access

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Abstract

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005–2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015–2020.

Type: Article
Title: System Dynamic Modelling of Industrial Growth and Landscape Ecology in China
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.026
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.026
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: System dynamics, Modelling, Landscape ecology, Industrial development, Landscape index, China
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10058513
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