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Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells

Orr, SA; Young, M; Stelfox, D; Curran, J; Viles, H; (2018) Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells. Science of The Total Environment , 640 pp. 1098-1111. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354. Green open access

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Abstract

Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently.

Type: Article
Title: Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Climate change, Heritage conservation, Risk assessment, Building performance, building moisture, Sustainability
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10058116
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