Orr, SA;
Young, M;
Stelfox, D;
Curran, J;
Viles, H;
(2018)
Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells.
Science of The Total Environment
, 640
pp. 1098-1111.
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354.
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Abstract
Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Heritage conservation, Risk assessment, Building performance, building moisture, Sustainability |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10058116 |
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